Friendlies · Friendly International
Cape Verde Islandsvs
Bermuda
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Cape Verde Islands
77%
Draw
Draw
16%
Away
Bermuda
7%
Model pick: Cape Verde Islands
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 77% (T−48h) to 77% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Cape Verde Islands baseline is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which shows strong home conviction (87%), but Elo disagrees sharply (39% home, 43% draw), signaling low overall conviction. Recent form supports home dominance (3W-2D vs Bermuda's 1W-4L streak), but Bermuda's losses are vs stronger opposition (FIFA ranks 2385, 5168, 5530). No injuries on either side. Small downward adjustment to pH and upward to pA reflects Elo's skepticism and Bermuda's fixture difficulty context; baseline already encodes recent form strength. Friendly context and 48h horizon warrant conservative positioni
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:01:21 PM
657d2cf45ff21b28b292ac284f4d6fb5fc9eac9493d203b1b8efb96911d75869
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 3.83 — 0.89
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +128 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 3.09 — 0.95
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 41/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:01:21.288Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.