Friendlies · Friendly International
Ugandavs
Madagascar
Kickoff: Monday, June 8, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Uganda
42%
Draw
Draw
28%
Away
Madagascar
31%
Lean: Uganda
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 42% (T−48h) to 42% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Uganda shows stronger recent form (3W-1D-1L vs Madagascar's 2W-2D-1L over the same window) and home advantage, but the Elo model's elevated draw probability (44.2%) and xG's away-lean (35.3% pA) signal meaningful uncertainty. No injuries reported for either side. Friendly context and modest sample size warrant conservative adjustments; baseline blend is well-calibrated. Small upward nudge to pH and downward to pA reflect Uganda's form edge, but disagreement between components keeps confidence low.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/6/2026, 12:00:16 AM
f4b8ce82a71d1bb4c7cbd23595c1c1b308ff8e2f64bb31d0ce6f98df22da60d8
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.15 — 1.85
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +47 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.04 — 1.82
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 43/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-06T00:00:16.605Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.