Friendlies · Friendly International
Chinavs
Thailand
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 7:35 AM ET · Yellow Dragon Stadium, Hangzhou
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
China
27%
Draw
Draw
23%
Away
Thailand
50%
Model pick: Thailand
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 27% (T−48h) to 27% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Baseline reflects sharp model disagreement (Elo favors home draw/win at 74%, Dixon-Coles/xG favor away at 53-56%), signaling low conviction. Recent form shows China mixed (1W-2L-1D in competitive play, 1W in friendlies) vs Thailand strong (3W-2L in recent friendlies/qualifiers). Home venue and Elo's modest +20 rating edge support modest upward pH adjustment (+1.6pp), but Thailand's recent offensive form (6-2, 3-0 wins) and China's defensive fragility (0-2, 0-3 losses) warrant slight pA protection (-1pp). No injuries reported; friendly context and T−48h uncertainty justify conservative moves wi
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:00:52 AM
21a898d218c08a21d05de6182be9bb0582b42fd601f5b6584b949fed9fe2f29c
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.54 — 2.34
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +20 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.34 — 1.89
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 45/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
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