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Friendlies · Friendly International

Thailand U23 crestThailand U23vsUAE U23 crestUAE U23

Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

Thailand U23

43%

Draw

Draw

27%

Away

UAE U23

30%

Lean: Thailand U23

Expected goals: 2.3—2.0(total 4.4)
Upset risk: 5/10

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%43%43%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 43% (T−48h) to 43% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Component models show material disagreement (Elo favors draw at 43%, xG favors away at 42%, Dixon-Coles favors home at 45%), signaling low conviction. Thailand U23 recent form is stronger (3W-2D vs UAE's 2W-3L), but both teams are U23 friendlies with high volatility. No injuries reported. Baseline blend is well-calibrated; minimal adjustment warranted at T−48h when lineups remain unpublished.

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:00:41 AM

cea61514021f815c6c4e5bb4a41b7e2627d6c43231d02dbcb356ea92417b1b33

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 43%D 27%A 30%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 45%D 23%A 33%

xG: 2.35 — 2.02

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 36%D 43%A 20%

Elo gap: +101 pts

xG-Poisson

H 36%D 22%A 42%

Expected goals: 1.77 — 1.91

LLM contextual review

H 43%D 27%A 31%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict publish

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:00:41.144Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

66ecfe7b16428f9a9d50888456f68bf80cea7a35dcb70644bacd1bbce782b0d2
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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