Friendlies · Friendly International
Botswanavs
Niger
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Botswana
16%
Draw
Draw
36%
Away
Niger
48%
Model pick: Niger
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 16% (T−48h) to 16% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Botswana shows modest recent improvement (3 draws in last 5, including a 3–3 home result) versus Niger's defensive fragility (3 losses in last 5, 0 goals in 4 of 5). Elo model (32-point home advantage) and xG model both suggest stronger home case than Dixon-Coles baseline; however, sharp disagreement between Elo (30% pH) and Dixon-Coles (12% pH) signals low conviction. Conservative +1.6pp home adjustment and −1.4pp away adjustment, anchored to baseline. No injuries reported; friendly context limits predictability. Moderate upset risk reflects Niger's recent form collapse and Botswana's home-gr
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:01:15 AM
a3b4150600d048abf2ba38d31f5721034b05b3178a1c573a4b6a8b5e628569ef
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 0.54 — 1.36
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +32 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.65 — 0.95
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 45/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
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