Friendlies · Friendly International
Mauritaniavs
Liberia
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Mauritania
39%
Draw
Draw
39%
Away
Liberia
22%
Lean: Mauritania · close call (0pp margin)
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 39% (T−48h) to 39% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Mauritania shows stronger recent form (3W-1D-1L vs Liberia's 1W-2D-2L over comparable windows), supporting a modest upward shift in pH. However, component models show material disagreement (xG favours away at 30% vs Dixon-Coles at 23%), and both teams are in friendly/qualifier prep with limited recent data quality. No injuries reported. Conservative adjustment of +2pp to home, −1.4pp to draw, −0.6pp to away respects the baseline while acknowledging form edge; confidence is low given fixture context and model divergence.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:01:19 AM
c6adf656439d51414b034fcb52b477987e1a19f5e030c06b796bfb4e89eddbe6
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.07 — 0.78
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +89 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.98 — 0.84
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 46/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:01:19.769Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.