Baseline ensemble is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which favors Togo home; Elo (0.19) shows sharp disagreement, preferring draw/away. Recent form is mixed: Togo has 1W–2L–2D in last 5 (including a 2–2 away draw vs stronger opposition), while Benin shows volatility (2W–2L–1D, with a heavy 0–4 loss to a top-10 side but also a 4–0 win). No injuries reported for either team. At T−48h with friendly context and model disagreement, small downward adjustment to home win (−2pp) and modest upward to away (±1pp) reflects Benin's recent upside variance and Togo's inconsistency; confidence is low

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM