Friendlies · Friendly International
Indonesiavs
Mozambique
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET · Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Indonesia
70%
Draw
Draw
19%
Away
Mozambique
11%
Model pick: Indonesia
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 70% (T−48h) to 70% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Baseline is heavily Dixon-Coles-weighted (0.81) with Elo showing sharp disagreement (pH 0.335 vs 0.795), signaling low conviction. Indonesia's recent form is mixed (2L-1D-1W in last 5, including heavy defeats to stronger opponents), while Mozambique shows consistent losses but home-venue advantage for Indonesia and neutral-ground Elo gap (69 points) remain structural supports. No injuries reported for either team. Small downward adjustment to pH and upward to pD reflects form volatility and model disagreement; xG and Dixon-Coles alignment on home win keeps adjustment conservative within ±8pp g
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:00:16 AM
c3a9187646216ed953e2bacb0ca4262353aeb6052cb87e0c8808e83c710117d7
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.70 — 0.73
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +69 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.54 — 0.76
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 44/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T06:00:16.895Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.