Friendlies · Friendly International
Kyrgyzstanvs
Palestine
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 10:30 AM ET · Dolen Omurzakov Stadium, Bishkek
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Kyrgyzstan
31%
Draw
Draw
43%
Away
Palestine
26%
Lean: Draw
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 31% (T−48h) to 31% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Kyrgyzstan shows marginally better recent form (2 draws vs Palestine's 1 win in last 5) and enjoys home advantage at neutral-rated venue. However, both teams are weak absolute performers with high volatility; xG model's 31% away probability signals meaningful uncertainty. No injuries reported for either side. Small upward adjustment to home win (+1.5pp) and downward to away win (−0.8pp) reflects home-field edge and form tilt, but models' disagreement (xG notably bullish on Palestine) warrants conservative positioning near baseline.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:00:33 AM
2b7dd0847166d2d8decbfa2337ed93e15ecc983a7884d057ee48bc3a57e83080
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 0.55 — 0.50
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +37 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.80 — 0.86
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 48/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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