Friendlies · Friendly International
Iraqvs
Venezuela
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET · SeatGeek Stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Iraq
61%
Draw
Draw
29%
Away
Venezuela
10%
Model pick: Iraq
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 61% (T−48h) to 61% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Iraq shows stronger recent form (4W-1D in last 5) vs Venezuela's 1W-4L stretch, supporting a modest upward shift in home win probability. However, sharp disagreement between Dixon-Coles (65.4% pH) and Elo (40.2% pH) signals low conviction; xG sits between them. No injuries reported for either side. Friendly context and 48h pre-match timing warrant conservative adjustment: +1.9pp to pH, −1.2pp to pD, −0.7pp to pA, staying well within ±8pp guardrails.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/8/2026, 12:00:19 AM
445a8518fe54644bc12f40805a75d945b4586483d0ecd1f53319b4fdf0c22bb1
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.83 — 0.57
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +146 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.33 — 0.67
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-08T00:00:19.846Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.