Friendlies · Friendly International
China PR U23vs
Tajikistan U23
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 3:30 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
China PR U23
16%
Draw
Draw
41%
Away
Tajikistan U23
44%
Lean: Tajikistan U23 · close call (3pp margin)
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 16% (T−48h) to 16% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Sharp disagreement between Elo (37% home) and Dixon-Coles (9% home) signals low conviction; baseline heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles. China PR U23 shows stronger recent form (3W-2D vs Tajikistan's 1W-3L-1D), and xG model leans home (41%), warranting modest upward adjustment to pH (+3.9pp) and downward to pA (−2.9pp). No injuries on either side. Friendly context and U23 squad volatility counsel conservative moves within ±8pp guardrails.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:00:53 AM
c493e7d45ac5861ee22fbbd76535748a2de979f3699948e2724d70a970f53c30
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 0.29 — 0.98
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +109 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.97 — 0.68
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 40/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T00:00:53.294Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.