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China PR U23 crestChina PR U23vsTajikistan U23 crestTajikistan U23

Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 5:35 AM ET

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

China PR U23

36%

Draw

Draw

46%

Away

Tajikistan U23

18%

Model pick: Draw

Expected goals: 0.7—0.5(total 1.2)
Upset risk: 5/10

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%36%36%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 36% (T−48h) to 36% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Baseline ensemble is well-anchored; component models show tight agreement (Dixon-Coles 0.81 weight dominates, Elo 0.19 adds modest home bias). China PR U23 recent form is mixed (two draws, three wins across 5 games; 10-0 vs weak opponent inflates xG model). Tajikistan U23 shows volatility (1W–2L–2D; recent loss to Kyrgyzstan U23 and draw vs Mongolia U23 suggest inconsistency). No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative micro-adjustment: slight pH lift (+0.7pp) reflecting China's home advantage and marginally stronger recent win rate, slight pD trim (−0.5pp) to

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:00:32 AM

632a44662d297930fe0e2a683eef5c32f68d2749baa46f3af159adbf37590004

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 36%D 46%A 18%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 35%D 47%A 18%

xG: 0.73 — 0.46

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 38%D 43%A 19%

Elo gap: +116 pts

xG-Poisson

H 44%D 38%A 18%

Expected goals: 0.87 — 0.45

LLM contextual review

H 37%D 46%A 18%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 48/100 · verdict publish

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:00:32.598Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

d29cb6ab557df57c4d47e0d792337c929dde35c0af393d58f9c4e7012f49382a
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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