Friendlies · Friendly International
Azerbaijan U21vs
Kyrgyz Republic U20
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET · Sav Stadyumu,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Azerbaijan U21
34%
Draw
Draw
25%
Away
Kyrgyz Republic U20
41%
Lean: Kyrgyz Republic U20
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 34% (T−48h) to 34% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Azerbaijan U21 shows volatile recent form (two 5-0 defeats offset by a win and draws), while Kyrgyz Republic U20 is in a clear downward trend (3 losses in last 4). Home advantage and Azerbaijan's marginally better recent trajectory warrant a modest +2pp shift to pH, but component model disagreement (xG heavily favors away at 54.2%) and the youth-team context (high variance, small sample sizes) counsel conservative adjustment. No injuries reported for either side. Confidence is low given fixture volatility and limited predictive power at U20/U21 level.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:00:29 AM
1d1d0e0e7e6029ee66fd4e666694161ba5aa67a36935222a4fec99e836237c1d
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.50 — 1.74
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +25 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.88 — 1.59
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 46/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
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