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Friendlies · Friendly International

Tajikistan crestTajikistanvsIndia crestIndia

Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET · Hisor Central Stadium, Hisor

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

Tajikistan

66%

Draw

Draw

23%

Away

India

11%

Model pick: Tajikistan

Expected goals: 2.7—1.0(total 3.6)
Upset risk: 5/10

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%66%66%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 66% (T−48h) to 66% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Baseline is heavily weighted toward Dixon-Coles (0.81), which favors home. Elo (0.19 weight) shows much tighter match (40% home, 42% draw) — a 143-point Elo gap is modest for international football and suggests structural disagreement. Tajikistan's recent form is mixed (2W-2D-1L, 2 goals conceded in last 5), while India shows persistent draws and losses with poor attacking output (1 goal in last 5). Home venue advantage and Tajikistan's slightly better recent record support the baseline, but Elo's skepticism and India's defensive solidity (0 goals conceded in 2 of last 5) warrant a small downw

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:00:56 AM

8caffd049c325c0df390fe344ab9cf2ca38b96125607245069b67159f397491a

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 66%D 23%A 11%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 72%D 19%A 10%

xG: 2.67 — 0.97

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 40%D 42%A 18%

Elo gap: +143 pts

xG-Poisson

H 78%D 14%A 8%

Expected goals: 2.63 — 0.71

LLM contextual review

H 67%D 23%A 11%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict publish

Integrity Lock

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✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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