Friendlies · Friendly International
Czech Republic U18vs
Romania U18
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Czech Republic U18
75%
Draw
Draw
19%
Away
Romania U18
6%
Model pick: Czech Republic U18
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 75% (T−48h) to 75% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and shows very strong home conviction (86.3%), but Elo (0.19 weight) pulls sharply toward draw/away (70% combined pD+pA), signaling model disagreement. Czech Republic's recent 3–0 home win is encouraging, but Romania's form is sparse and mixed; no injuries on either side. At T−48h with unconfirmed lineups and low-conviction signal spread, conservative adjustment: modest trim to pH (−1.7pp) and lift to pA (+0.7pp) to reflect Elo's caution, while keeping pD stable. Friendly context and youth-level volatility warrant low confidence.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:00:13 PM
ae1403d825cf11ff7324cf710bf826c9669010a527ebdd9b71bab283c6661cd7
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.47 — 0.20
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +63 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.06 — 0.79
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 35/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:00:13.380Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.