Friendlies · Friendly International
Vanuatuvs
Fiji
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET · VFF Freshwater Stadium, Port Vila
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Vanuatu
68%
Draw
Draw
24%
Away
Fiji
9%
Model pick: Vanuatu
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 68% (T−48h) to 68% (Pre-match) ↑ 0pp · 1 stage still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and strongly favors home; Elo is a major outlier (pH 0.332), suggesting structural disagreement about true strength. Vanuatu's recent form is mixed (2W-2D) but home-biased; Fiji shows volatility with heavy defeats in September offsetting recent draws/wins. No injuries on either side. The sharp model disagreement (66-point Elo gap vs Dixon-Coles conviction) warrants modest downward adjustment to pH and upward to pD/pA, staying within ±8pp guardrails. Friendly context and small-nation volatility elevate upset risk.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
Pre-match stage hash · locked 6/6/2026, 1:30:07 AM
6d8e3c4ebd0439fbb23de7b63ded2a5a2ee1b647dd47373dc516cf2a476ab87d
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.31 — 0.50
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +66 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.88 — 1.00
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 33/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:00:20.443Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.