Friendlies · Friendly International
Azerbaijan U21vs
Bahrain U20
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET · Sav Stadyumu,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Azerbaijan U21
46%
Draw
Draw
27%
Away
Bahrain U20
28%
Model pick: Azerbaijan U21
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 46% (T−48h) to 46% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Azerbaijan U21 shows volatile recent form (W-D-L-D-L) with heavy away defeats (0-5 twice), but plays at home here with a modest Elo advantage (+27). Bahrain U20 is in freefall (0 wins in last 4, including 0-4 loss 3 days ago), suggesting fatigue or squad depth issues. Dixon-Coles (81% weight) anchors the blend toward a slight home edge; Elo's draw-heavy signal (44%) reflects uncertainty typical of youth friendlies. No injuries reported for either side. Minimal adjustment from baseline given component disagreement and youth-match volatility — small upward tilt to home reflects home-venue stabil
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:00:25 PM
0e34b55113ebd7b4e4d5c13a7e860a8bf54b928f36d56082bfe4fc3a9c5914de
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.64 — 1.19
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +27 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.50 — 1.35
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 33/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:00:25.669Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.