Friendlies · Friendly International
Jordan U20vs
Panama U20
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 2 out of 5 confidenceHome
Jordan U20
58%
Draw
Draw
23%
Away
Panama U20
19%
Model pick: Jordan U20
Thin data — forecast shown as free / experimental only
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 58% (T−48h) to 58% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and anchors pH at 0.588. Component models show material disagreement (Elo 0.349 vs xG 0.433 vs DC 0.645), signaling low conviction. Jordan U20 shows recent wins but against same opponent twice in Feb; Panama U20 is in a slump (1W-3L since June). No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: modest downward shift on pH (−1.3pp) and slight draw/away lift to reflect Elo's caution and xG's skepticism, while staying well within ±8pp guardrails. Friendly context and youth-team volatility warrant low confidence
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:00:40 PM
b0919df77d1f90352de1c592867038cd5a40f06f7fffc3a645552f57956b9fd2
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.38 — 1.18
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +85 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.64 — 1.39
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 28/100 · verdict thin
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:00:40.775Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.