Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and shows strong home conviction (0.845 pH), but Elo (0.19 weight) is sharply bearish at 0.382 pH—a 46pp gap signals low-conviction disagreement. Kosovo's recent form is mixed (2W-2D-1L, including a 0-0 away draw most recently), while Luxembourg shows volatility (1W-4L in last 5). No injuries on either side. At T−48h with U21 friendlies (high noise), we moderately trim the baseline pH by 3.7pp toward the Elo signal and raise pA slightly, staying well within the ±8pp guardrail. Confidence is low (2/5) due to component disagreement and the inheren

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM