Friendlies · Friendly International
Sierra Leonevs
Liberia
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Sierra Leone
54%
Draw
Draw
31%
Away
Liberia
15%
Model pick: Sierra Leone
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 54% (T−48h) to 54% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and anchors pH at 0.537. Component models show material disagreement: Elo is notably pessimistic on home (0.329), while xG is more bullish on away (0.268). Sierra Leone's recent form is mixed (2W–2D–1L over 5 games, mostly qualifiers); Liberia shows similar volatility (1W–2D–2L). No injuries reported for either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: slight upward nudge to pH (+0.008pp) reflecting home-venue baseline strength, slight downward to pA (−0.004pp) to respect Elo's caution. Friendly context and weak recent fo
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:00:50 PM
d5da54fc06f99e1acf6fff58923aa7085112662b2f268b84e51b6769a5db298f
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.78 — 0.78
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +62 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.54 — 1.08
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 39/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:00:50.560Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.