Friendlies · Friendly International
Afghanistanvs
Pakistan
Kickoff: Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET · National Stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Afghanistan
20%
Draw
Draw
33%
Away
Pakistan
48%
Model pick: Pakistan
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 20% (T−48h) to 20% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Baseline ensemble is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which favors Pakistan away (48% pA). Elo shows a 59-point gap favoring Pakistan but assigns only 19% weight. Recent form is mixed: Afghanistan has 3 losses in last 5 (including 0–3 and 1–3 defeats) with two 0–0 draws; Pakistan won 3–0 most recently but also has 3 losses in 5. No injuries reported for either team. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: slight upward nudge to home (Afghanistan) reflecting home-venue effect and Elo's structural disagreement, but staying within ±8pp of baseline. Friendly context and
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 12:00:30 AM
56ed19941d651e5bd4601c55ae0ccf2697591988d338bcb7b02eb0f44db17c85
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 0.83 — 1.64
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +59 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.60 — 1.18
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 53/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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