Friendlies · Friendly International
Kenyavs
Lesotho
Kickoff: Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Kenya
60%
Draw
Draw
29%
Away
Lesotho
11%
Model pick: Kenya
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 60% (T−48h) to 60% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Kenya shows solid recent form (3W-2D in last 5, all competitive matches) with consistent low-scoring patterns (1 goal per game). Lesotho is in severe form collapse (0W-5L, conceding 3+ goals repeatedly in recent fixtures). Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble and aligns with Kenya's home advantage; Elo's skepticism (357% pH) reflects historical strength gaps but recent Lesotho deterioration is not yet fully encoded. No injuries on either side. Small upward adjustment to pH (+1.9pp) and xG expectations reflect Lesotho's current defensive fragility, but conservative given friendly context and mode
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 6:00:23 AM
8febf83ea282e16527b85b8a4f7ba92e810e5b373431a8ee70022d167264512e
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.83 — 0.58
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +95 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.20 — 0.83
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 50/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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