Friendlies · Friendly International
Omanvs
Mozambique
Kickoff: Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Oman
51%
Draw
Draw
31%
Away
Mozambique
18%
Model pick: Oman
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 51% (T−48h) to 51% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Oman shows modest recent form (2W-2D-1L in last 5, mostly competitive draws and wins in qualifying/friendlies), while Mozambique is in clear decline (1W-4L in last 5, including heavy defeats 0-4 and 0-2). Dixon-Coles and xG align on home advantage (~51%), but Elo is conservative (36% pH), likely reflecting historical strength gaps. No injuries on either side. Small upward adjustment to pH (+1.7pp) and xG expectations reflect Mozambique's poor recent trajectory and Oman's home-venue stability, but confidence is moderate because this is a friendly and Elo's caution warrants restraint.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 6:00:29 AM
aabac32b91f3f0e4d580554ab4716a8b2bc717e2426ed062209398abc066d7a6
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.72 — 0.94
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +98 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.48 — 0.89
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 43/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
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