Friendlies · Friendly International
Maldivesvs
Bangladesh U23
Kickoff: Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET · National Stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Maldives
12%
Draw
Draw
30%
Away
Bangladesh U23
57%
Model pick: Bangladesh U23
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 12% (T−48h) to 12% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Sharp disagreement between Dixon-Coles (67% away) and Elo (34% home) anchors adjustment toward baseline. Maldives show poor recent form (3 losses in last 5, 0 goals in 4 of 5), but Bangladesh U23 are also inconsistent (2 recent 0-0 draws suggest defensive setup). Home venue and Elo's 73-point advantage warrant modest upward shift on pH; away win probability reduced slightly to reflect Maldives' home-ground context despite their weakness. Low confidence due to fixture imbalance (senior vs U23) and sparse recent data quality.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 6:00:34 AM
d086752e85abf4cac387b3433a200cac30f935d925ecf3524472155d32934397
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 0.20 — 1.33
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +73 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.48 — 1.04
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 44/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-05T06:00:34.764Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.