Friendlies · Friendly International
Vanuatuvs
Fiji
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET · VFF Freshwater Stadium, Port Vila
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Vanuatu
62%
Draw
Draw
26%
Away
Fiji
12%
Model pick: Vanuatu
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 62% (T−48h) to 62% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Baseline is heavily Dixon-Coles-weighted (0.81) with Elo showing sharp disagreement (Elo pH 0.349 vs DC 0.672). This disagreement signals low conviction; staying close to baseline is prudent at T−48h. Vanuatu's recent form is strong (3W-2D in last 5, home venue advantage), but Fiji's form is poor (1W-4L-D, including heavy defeats). No injuries on either side. Small upward pH adjustment (+1.4pp) reflects Vanuatu's home-field edge and superior recent trajectory; minimal xG data available limits confidence further. Friendly context and small-nation volatility warrant moderate upset risk.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:00:26 AM
900146970f1c7d479b0f420f7f881a2b80a10d845f67d1593d3ff574912e4b3a
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.15 — 0.75
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +85 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.20 — 0.89
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 48/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:00:26.249Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.