Friendlies · Friendly International
Tanzaniavs
Rwanda
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Tanzania
42%
Draw
Draw
26%
Away
Rwanda
32%
Lean: Tanzania
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 42% (T−48h) to 42% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Tanzania shows defensive fragility (3 losses in last 5, all 0–1 scorelines at home) but the baseline already reflects this via Dixon-Coles weighting. Rwanda's recent form is mixed (1W–3L in competitive play, though a 4–0 friendly win in March suggests capability). Component models diverge sharply (Elo favours draw at 44%, xG favours away at 41%), signalling low conviction; baseline blend is well-calibrated. No injuries reported for either side. Modest upward adjustment to pH (+0.8pp) and expectedGoalsHome (+0.04) reflects Tanzania's home venue and slight recent stabilisation (1 draw in last 5)
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:01:29 AM
af4ae24431583eec2bcfd8e6b44d1fe9fcf01bbefb4112a9a67b0d26863fd306
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.58 — 1.36
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +26 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.20 — 1.37
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 42/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:01:29.339Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.