Friendlies · Friendly International
Republic of Ireland U21vs
Qatar U23
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 10:45 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Republic of Ireland U21
55%
Draw
Draw
27%
Away
Qatar U23
18%
Model pick: Republic of Ireland U21
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 55% (T−48h) to 55% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Ireland U21 recent form is poor (0–4, 0–2 losses in Nov 2025), but baseline already reflects this via Dixon-Coles weighting (81%). Qatar U23 shows stronger recent results (3 wins in last 5) and xG model flags away upside (27.9% vs baseline 18.2%), yet Elo heavily favors Ireland (84-point diff, 43.7% draw). At T−48h with no lineup data and sharp model disagreement, conservative +0.8pp home adjustment acknowledges Ireland's home venue and Elo strength while respecting xG's caution. No injuries to either squad. Low confidence reflects genuine model tension; modest upset risk reflects Qatar's rece
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:00:39 AM
659a1f5d6c55324a516d19c63408b36ebc11af15747fa91a8edbee5f706525f6
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.91 — 0.94
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +84 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.44 — 1.06
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 46/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T06:00:39.005Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.