Liberia and Sierra Leone are closely matched regional rivals with minimal injury impact. The baseline ensemble is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which anchors the forecast; Elo's 56-point advantage for Liberia and xG's away-favoring signal create meaningful disagreement, warranting conservative adjustments only. Recent form shows Liberia with mixed results (1W–2D–2L) and Sierra Leone slightly more stable (2W–2D–1L), but sample sizes are small and opponent strength is unclear. At T−48h with no lineup data, staying near the baseline is appropriate; marginal upward tilt to home reflects

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM