Friendlies · Friendly International
Boliviavs
Algeria
Kickoff: Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Bolivia
9%
Draw
Draw
17%
Away
Algeria
74%
Model pick: Algeria
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 9% (T−48h) to 9% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Bolivia shows mixed recent form (2W–2L in last 5) with defensive fragility (0–3 losses away). Algeria is in strong form (4W–1D in last 5) with attacking potency (5–1, 3–1 wins). Elo model (−28 rating gap, 30% pH) signals meaningful uncertainty vs. the ensemble's heavy xG/Dixon-Coles lean (8.7% pH). At T−48h with no injuries and friendly context, conservative adjustment: modest upside to Bolivia (home-venue effect in friendlies) and slight downside to Algeria (regression from recent hot streak), but staying within ±8pp of baseline. Low confidence reflects sharp model disagreement.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/8/2026, 12:00:42 PM
a144e46554d05b26ce804c65b5746571310bd2c70606a99a15c01443dc217490
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 0.44 — 2.66
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: -28 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.25 — 2.79
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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