Friendlies · Friendly International
Russia U21vs
Iraq U23
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 10:30 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Russia U21
76%
Draw
Draw
16%
Away
Iraq U23
8%
Model pick: Russia U21
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Dixon-Coles and xG models show strong agreement on a dominant home win (86%+ pH), but Elo's 34% pH signals meaningful structural uncertainty—likely reflecting Iraq U23's recent 1-0 away win and Russia U21's mixed form (2W-1D-2L). No injuries on either side. Friendly context and youth-team volatility warrant modest downward adjustment to pH and slight lift to pD/pA, staying within ±8pp of baseline. Confidence is low due to component disagreement and the inherent unpredictability of U21/U23 friendlies.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/8/2026, 1:00:09 PM
6e34b6104e1a07143efec1671baa2773f56e846a1a3b635608d06deaf9e50feb
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 3.83 — 0.95
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +75 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 3.62 — 0.76
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 50/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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