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Friendlies · Friendly International

Algeria U23 crestAlgeria U23vsMauritania U23 crestMauritania U23

Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 2 out of 5 confidence

Home

Algeria U23

72%

Draw

Draw

22%

Away

Mauritania U23

6%

Model pick: Algeria U23

Expected goals: 1.9—0.2(total 2.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Thin data — forecast shown as free / experimental only

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%?72%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches

Baseline is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which shows strong home conviction (80.4% pH). Elo disagrees sharply (34.3% pH, 43.8% pD), signaling low model consensus. Algeria U23 has won three straight (2–0, 1–0, 1–0 at home), but Mauritania U23 just lost 0–2 away; both are U23 friendlies with limited historical depth. No injuries on either side. Given the sharp Elo–Dixon-Coles divergence and the small sample size typical of U23 friendlies, minimal adjustment from baseline is warranted; staying within ±2pp reflects appropriate caution.

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/8/2026, 1:00:15 PM

824e9c8fcab9e15a45002d36faab57c9845fb0be4ea40b52bd4bd88c5e96907f

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 72%D 22%A 7%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 80%D 17%A 3%

xG: 1.86 — 0.16

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 34%D 44%A 22%

Elo gap: +79 pts

xG-Poisson

H 63%D 24%A 13%

Expected goals: 1.67 — 0.60

LLM contextual review

H 72%D 22%A 6%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 23/100 · verdict thin

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-08T13:00:15.484Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

83d40ff6db32d6e7cc8d95ae3b53bf78c763e85999a67757291a9c384c354e76
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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