Friendlies · Friendly International
Egypt U19vs
Russia U19
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Egypt U19
61%
Draw
Draw
25%
Away
Russia U19
14%
Model pick: Egypt U19
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Dixon-Coles and xG models show strong agreement on home advantage (68%+), but Elo is a significant outlier at 31% pH, suggesting structural disagreement about relative team strength. Egypt U19 shows recent home form (4W-1D in last 5), while Russia U19 is inconsistent away (1W-2L-1D). No injuries on either side. The baseline already reflects this disagreement conservatively; modest downward adjustment to pH (-0.8pp) and upward to pD (+0.3pp) acknowledges Elo's caution without over-committing. Friendly context and U19 volatility warrant low confidence.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/8/2026, 1:00:19 PM
9276c345b5ad40b6fe1127a64b597c7ec92b090f8e85f9a9d0024f98739cf4ce
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.62 — 1.09
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +43 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.48 — 1.07
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 43/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-08T13:00:19.564Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.