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Friendlies · Friendly International

Brazil U17 crestBrazil U17vsUnited States U17 crestUnited States U17

Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 3 out of 5 confidence

Home

Brazil U17

78%

Draw

Draw

16%

Away

United States U17

6%

Model pick: Brazil U17

Expected goals: 3.3—0.5(total 3.9)
Upset risk: 6/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%?78%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches

Dixon-Coles and xG strongly favor Brazil (89–90% pH), but Elo sees a much tighter contest (36% pH, 44% draw), suggesting model disagreement on true strength. Brazil's recent form shows two consecutive draws after a 7–0 win, indicating possible fatigue or rotation; USA has won 3 of last 4 but faces a significant Elo gap (94 points). No injuries on either side. Given sharp component divergence, we anchor near baseline but trim Brazil's win probability by ~3.8pp and raise draw/away slightly to reflect Elo's caution and Brazil's recent form softening. Low confidence reflects genuine uncertainty in

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/8/2026, 1:00:24 PM

3601096bce369dca070af7094f7ee47c01608d80b269f063c5b6a903213d681b

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 80%D 15%A 5%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 90%D 8%A 1%

xG: 3.43 — 0.46

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 36%D 44%A 21%

Elo gap: +94 pts

xG-Poisson

H 90%D 8%A 3%

Expected goals: 3.25 — 0.46

LLM contextual review

H 76%D 18%A 6%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 45/100 · verdict moderate

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-08T13:00:24.145Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

b0df2b3615e0c7918bea376341dd78f54075fb65069db6823116476ef3d337c6
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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