Dixon-Coles and xG models show strong agreement on home dominance (pH ~0.68–0.70), but Elo diverges sharply (pH 0.33), suggesting structural disagreement about relative strength. Pakistan's recent form is mixed (2D, 2L in last 5) with low goal output; Afghanistan has lost 3 of last 5 and conceded heavily. No injuries reported for either team. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: slight downward nudge to pH and upward to pD to reflect Elo's skepticism and Pakistan's inconsistent finishing, while respecting the baseline's heavy Dixon-Coles weighting. Friendly context and l

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM