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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489369

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Mexico crest
MexicoHOME
2:0
Match Finished
HT 1-0
South Africa crest
South AfricaAWAY
Thu, Jun 11 · 19:00 UTCEstadio Azteca, Mexico City22°CRefereeWilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Mexico (66%)✓ Hit

Home

Mexico

99%

Draw

Draw

1%

Away

South Africa

0%

Model call: Mexico

Expected goals: 2.3—0.1(total 2.5)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 11

Mexico

2

FT

South Africa

0

Model called (T−24h)

Mexico (66%)

Actually happened

Mexico (66%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Starting XI not yet confirmed — lineups land roughly an hour before kickoff and this report updates automatically.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-10T02:59:21.870Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

6ad36060abee4991ff3a9f01c705e4e3bab18b09b9c0aac72c5ac076a4d0259f
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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