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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489370

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
USA crest
USAHOME
4:1
Match Finished
HT 3-0
Paraguay crest
ParaguayAWAY
Sat, Jun 13 · 01:00 UTCSoFi Stadium, Los Angeles21°CRefereeDanny Makkelie, Netherlands◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

USA (39%)✓ Hit

Home

USA

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Paraguay

0%

Model call: USA

Expected goals: 3.1—1.1(total 4.2)
Upset risk: 6/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 4–1Home win39%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 13

USA

4

FT

Paraguay

1

Model called (T−24h)

USA (100%)

Actually happened

USA (100%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

USA

4-2-3-1
  1. M. FreeseG
  2. A. RobinsonD
  3. T. ReamD
  4. C. RichardsD
  5. A. FreemanD
  6. T. AdamsM
  7. M. TillmanM
  8. C. PulisicM
  9. W. McKennieM
  10. S. DestM
  11. F. BalogunF

Paraguay

4-4-2
  1. O. GillG
  2. J. AlonsoD
  3. Omar AldereteD
  4. G. GómezD
  5. J. CáceresD
  6. M. AlmirónM
  7. D. BobadillaM
  8. A. CubasM
  9. D. GómezM
  10. J. EncisoF
  11. A. SanabriaF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-12T00:36:18.198Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

1f985eab77a116b9595e2f29b5021e72d696c37ebb7b8904286c30b39c92c6f3
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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