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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489371

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Brazil crest
BrazilHOME
1:1
Match Finished
HT 1-1
Morocco crest
MoroccoAWAY
Sat, Jun 13 · 22:00 UTCMetLife Stadium, New York New Jersey31°CRefereeSlavko Vinčić, Slovenia◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Morocco (41%)✗ Miss

Home

Brazil

7%

Draw

Draw

86%

Away

Morocco

6%

Model call: Draw

Expected goals: 1.1—1.1(total 2.2)
Upset risk: 6/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–1Draw33%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 14

Brazil

1

FT

Morocco

1

Model called (T−24h)

Draw (86%)

Actually happened

Draw (86%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Brazil

4-2-3-1
  1. AlissonG
  2. Douglas SantosD
  3. GabrielD
  4. MarquinhosD
  5. IbañezD
  6. Bruno GuimarãesM
  7. CasemiroM
  8. Vinícius JúniorM
  9. Lucas PaquetáM
  10. RaphinhaM
  11. ThiagoF

Morocco

4-2-3-1
  1. Y. BounouG
  2. N. MazraouiD
  3. C. RiadD
  4. I. DiopD
  5. A. HakimiD
  6. Neil El AynaouiM
  7. Ayyoub BouaddiM
  8. B. El KhannoussM
  9. A. OunahiM
  10. Brahim DíazM
  11. I. SaibariF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-11T22:58:22.302Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

41989c808096ea962742ada0c79998645d5776a49f9add721313d8d98d16ed9d
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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