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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489372

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Haiti crest
HaitiHOME
0:1
Match Finished
HT 0-1
Scotland crest
ScotlandAWAY
Sun, Jun 14 · 01:00 UTCGillette Stadium, Boston23°CRefereeMustapha Ghorbal, Algeria◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Scotland (40%)✓ Hit

Home

Haiti

0%

Draw

Draw

3%

Away

Scotland

97%

Model call: Scotland

Expected goals: 0.1—1.1(total 1.2)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 0–1Away win36%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 14

Haiti

0

FT

Scotland

1

Model called (T−24h)

Scotland (97%)

Actually happened

Scotland (97%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Haiti

4-4-2
  1. J. PlacideG
  2. Player 190747D
  3. H. DelcroixD
  4. Player 12303D
  5. C. ArcusD
  6. R. ProvidenceM
  7. Jean-Ricner BellegardeM
  8. D. Jean JacquesM
  9. L. DeedsonM
  10. W. IsidorF
  11. F. PierrotF

Scotland

4-4-2
  1. A. GunnG
  2. A. RobertsonD
  3. G. HanleyD
  4. J. HendryD
  5. A. HickeyD
  6. J. McGinnM
  7. L. FergusonM
  8. S. McTominayM
  9. Ben DoakM
  10. C. AdamsF
  11. L. ShanklandF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-11T22:58:31.255Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

4887a25812d13bdd02d75f43924905aa9cefaca4439cef4aae5307bb9c65ec71
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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