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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489373

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Qatar crest
QatarHOME
1:1
Match Finished
HT 0-1
Switzerland crest
SwitzerlandAWAY
Sat, Jun 13 · 19:00 UTCLevi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area22°CRefereeSaid Martinez, Honduras◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Switzerland (40%)✗ Miss

Home

Qatar

0%

Draw

Draw

2%

Away

Switzerland

98%

Model call: Switzerland

Expected goals: 0.0—1.1(total 1.1)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–1Draw35%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 13

Qatar

1

FT

Switzerland

1

Model called (T−24h)

Switzerland (98%)

Actually happened

Draw (2%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Qatar

4-3-3
  1. Player 42207G
  2. Player 175439D
  3. Player 2532D
  4. Player 2530D
  5. Player 377930D
  6. Player 366516M
  7. Player 2535M
  8. Jassem GaberM
  9. Akram AfifF
  10. Player 542541F
  11. Player 42075F

Switzerland

3-4-2-1
  1. G. KobelG
  2. N. ElvediD
  3. M. AkanjiD
  4. D. ZakariaD
  5. R. RodríguezM
  6. G. XhakaM
  7. R. FreulerM
  8. M. AebischerM
  9. R. VargasF
  10. D. NdoyeF
  11. B. EmboloF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-11T22:58:04.432Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

f4645978a3ee82f7830fda8e0bf6060cdb5f51e51bce2b9ad60bfa11be4b853e
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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