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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489374

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Germany crest
GermanyHOME
7:1
Match Finished
HT 3-1
Curaçao crest
CuraçaoAWAY
Sun, Jun 14 · 17:00 UTCNRG Stadium, Houston30°CRefereeJalal Jayed, Morocco◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Germany (62%)✓ Hit

Home

Germany

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Curaçao

0%

Model call: Germany

Expected goals: 6.1—1.0(total 7.2)
Upset risk: 2/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 7–1Home win62%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 14

Germany

7

FT

Curaçao

1

Model called (T−24h)

Germany (100%)

Actually happened

Germany (100%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Germany

4-2-3-1
  1. M. NeuerG
  2. Nathaniel BrownD
  3. N. SchlotterbeckD
  4. J. TahD
  5. J. KimmichD
  6. F. NmechaM
  7. Aleksandar PavlovićM
  8. F. WirtzM
  9. J. MusialaM
  10. L. SanéM
  11. K. HavertzF

Curaçao

4-2-3-1
  1. E. RoomG
  2. D. FonvilleD
  3. A. ObispoD
  4. R. BazoerD
  5. S. FloranusD
  6. L. BacunaM
  7. L. ComenenciaM
  8. J. BacunaM
  9. T. ChongM
  10. S. HansenM
  11. J. LocadiaF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-12T07:12:07.345Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

ed5297ef8deb4432b4da0235086c3aa8546c81d7b44a1ae8106ffbd701d448c8
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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