Skip to main content
← All reports

SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489375

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Ivory Coast crest
Ivory CoastHOME
1:0
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Ecuador crest
EcuadorAWAY
Sun, Jun 14 · 23:00 UTCLincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia32°CRefereeFrançois Letexier, France◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Ivory Coast (52%)✓ Hit

Home

Ivory Coast

7%

Draw

Draw

86%

Away

Ecuador

6%

Model call: Draw

Expected goals: 0.1—0.0(total 0.1)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–0Home win52%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 15

Ivory Coast

1

FT

Ecuador

0

Model called (T−24h)

Ivory Coast (52%)

Actually happened

Ivory Coast (52%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Ivory Coast

4-4-2
  1. Yahia FofanaG
  2. G. KonanD
  3. Emmanuel AgbadouD
  4. W. SingoD
  5. G. DoueD
  6. B. TouréM
  7. F. KessiéM
  8. S. FofanaM
  9. Yan DiomandeM
  10. S. WahiF
  11. N. PépéF

Ecuador

3-4-3
  1. H. GalíndezG
  2. Piero HincapieD
  3. W. PachoD
  4. J. OrdoñezD
  5. P. ViteM
  6. M. CaicedoM
  7. A. FrancoM
  8. A. MindaM
  9. J. ZamoraF
  10. E. ValenciaF
  11. G. PlataF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-12T17:11:39.329Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

2f6ceeada5ae3e2c7732bfe8cdba502b8fb8ab8a1055ea229cb94d2f242bb00c
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

How the model works →Unlock the full report →