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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489376

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Netherlands crest
NetherlandsHOME
2:2
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Japan crest
JapanAWAY
Sun, Jun 14 · 20:00 UTCAT&T Stadium, Dallas29°CRefereeIsmail Elfath, USA◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Netherlands (50%)✗ Miss

Home

Netherlands

97%

Draw

Draw

3%

Away

Japan

0%

Model call: Netherlands

Expected goals: 2.0—1.0(total 3.1)
Upset risk: 6/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 2–2Draw50%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 14

Netherlands

2

FT

Japan

2

Model called (T−24h)

Netherlands (97%)

Actually happened

Draw (3%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Netherlands

4-3-3
  1. B. VerbruggenG
  2. Jan Paul van HeckeD
  3. V. van DijkD
  4. M. van de VenD
  5. D. DumfriesD
  6. T. ReijndersM
  7. F. de JongM
  8. R. GravenberchM
  9. C. GakpoF
  10. D. MalenF
  11. C. SummervilleF

Japan

3-4-2-1
  1. Z. SuzukiG
  2. Hiroki ItoD
  3. S. TaniguchiD
  4. T. WatanabeD
  5. K. NakamuraM
  6. K. SanoM
  7. D. KamadaM
  8. R. DoanM
  9. D. MaedaF
  10. Takefusa KuboF
  11. A. UedaF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-12T08:11:46.397Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

4ca4b4d147b2229d78d237a33bf2c9cc2961d6ebf7d8057180f995166c45c3af
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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