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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489377

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Belgium crest
BelgiumHOME
1:1
Match Finished
HT 0-1
Egypt crest
EgyptAWAY
Mon, Jun 15 · 19:00 UTCLumen Field, Seattle29°CRefereeRamon Abatti Abel, Brazil◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Belgium (65%)✗ Miss

In-play peak · live read

Draw 94%75'

Home

Belgium

3%

Draw

Draw

94%

Away

Egypt

3%

Model call: Draw

Expected goals: 1.1—1.0(total 2.1)
Upset risk: 4/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–1Draw65%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 15

Belgium

1

FT

Egypt

1

Model called (T−24h)

Belgium (65%)

Actually happened

Draw (21%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine leaned Belgium (65%) in a close call. It finished 1-1, a draw — a miss on a fixture the model itself read as far from settled.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Belgium, so this match is a miss in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Belgium

4-2-3-1
  1. T. CourtoisG
  2. T. CastagneD
  3. B. MecheleD
  4. N. NgoyD
  5. T. MeunierD
  6. Y. TielemansM
  7. A. OnanaM
  8. L. TrossardM
  9. K. De BruyneM
  10. J. DokuM
  11. C. De KetelaereF

Egypt

4-2-3-1
  1. Mostafa ShobeirG
  2. Player 2649D
  3. Hamdi FathyD
  4. Yasser IbrahimD
  5. Mohamed HanyD
  6. Marwan AttiaM
  7. Mohanad LasheenM
  8. Player 395075M
  9. Emam AshourM
  10. Mohamed SalahM
  11. Omar MarmoushF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-13T07:30:12.923Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

83afd6629f8b9c8fdbc75e2ff12e7d5dd22d8abc7873b2356f5b9468b7b7c631
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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