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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489378

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Iran crest
IranHOME
2:2
Match Finished
HT 1-1
New Zealand crest
New ZealandAWAY
Tue, Jun 16 · 01:00 UTCSoFi Stadium, Los Angeles20°CRefereeCésar Ramos Palazuelos, Mexico◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Iran (61%)✗ Miss

In-play peak · live read

Draw 94%75'

Home

Iran

3%

Draw

Draw

94%

Away

New Zealand

3%

Model call: Draw

Expected goals: 2.1—2.0(total 4.1)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 2–2Draw61%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 16

Iran

2

FT

New Zealand

2

Model called (T−24h)

Iran (61%)

Actually happened

Draw (21%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine leaned Iran (61%) in a close call. It finished 2-2, a draw — a miss on a fixture the model itself read as far from settled.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Iran, so this match is a miss in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Iran

4-4-2
  1. A. BeiranvandG
  2. M. MohammadiD
  3. Player 29704D
  4. Player 29809D
  5. Player 2691D
  6. M. MohebiM
  7. S. EzatolahiM
  8. S. GhoddosM
  9. Player 343405M
  10. M. TaremiF
  11. Player 89982F

New Zealand

4-2-3-1
  1. M. CrocombeG
  2. Liberato CacaceD
  3. M. BoxallD
  4. F. SurmanD
  5. T. PayneD
  6. M. StamenićM
  7. Joe BellM
  8. E. JustM
  9. S. SinghM
  10. Callum McCowattM
  11. C. WoodF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-13T13:01:48.954Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

6bc7aef80820bc45f3d98081d435d654734f42f7e388d56205fb27897dcceca5
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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