Skip to main content
← All reports

SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489382

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Austria crest
AustriaHOME
3:1
Match Finished
HT 1-0
Jordan crest
JordanAWAY
Wed, Jun 17 · 04:00 UTCLevi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area17°CRefereeDahane Beida, Mauritania◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Austria (57%)✓ Hit

Home

Austria

96%

Draw

Draw

3%

Away

Jordan

0%

Model call: Austria

Expected goals: 2.2—1.0(total 3.2)
Upset risk: 4/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 3–1Home win57%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 17

Austria

3

FT

Jordan

1

Model called (T−24h)

Austria (57%)

Actually happened

Austria (57%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored Austria (57%), and the live read grew to 96% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 3-1, a Austria win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Austria, so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Austria

3-4-2-1
  1. A. SchlagerG
  2. D. AlabaD
  3. P. LienhartD
  4. S. PoschD
  5. K. LaimerM
  6. N. SeiwaldM
  7. X. SchlagerM
  8. P. MweneM
  9. M. SabitzerF
  10. R. SchmidF
  11. S. KalajdzicF

Jordan

5-4-1
  1. Player 140607G
  2. Mohannad Abu TahaD
  3. Player 102538D
  4. Yazan Al ArabD
  5. Player 310835D
  6. Player 53902D
  7. Player 492980M
  8. Player 140609M
  9. Player 213980M
  10. Mousa Al TamariM
  11. Player 164026F

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-14T23:00:31.736Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

c9ccae3d545fa8a4c2caaab5cde43f5c30a542047c9957b58da951e710392b48
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

How the model works →Unlock the full report →