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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489383

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
France crest
FranceHOME
3:1
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Senegal crest
SenegalAWAY
Tue, Jun 16 · 19:00 UTCMetLife Stadium, New York New Jersey25°CRefereeAlireza Faghani, Australia◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

France (59%)✓ Hit

Home

France

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Senegal

0%

Model call: France

Expected goals: 2.1—0.1(total 2.2)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 3–1Home win59%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 16

France

3

FT

Senegal

1

Model called (T−24h)

France (59%)

Actually happened

France (59%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored France (59%), and the live read grew to 100% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 3-1, a France win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was France, so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

France

4-2-3-1
  1. M. MaignanG
  2. T. HernándezD
  3. D. UpamecanoD
  4. W. SalibaD
  5. J. KoundéD
  6. A. RabiotM
  7. A. TchouaméniM
  8. Désiré DouéM
  9. O. DembéléM
  10. Michael OliseM
  11. K. MbappéF

Senegal

4-3-3
  1. É. MendyG
  2. E. DioufD
  3. M. NiakhateD
  4. K. KoulibalyD
  5. K. DiattaD
  6. P. GueyeM
  7. I. GueyeM
  8. Lamine CamaraM
  9. S. ManéF
  10. N. JacksonF
  11. I. SarrF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-14T14:30:08.519Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

db179a72beba0d1f67f433e33fedaf99b9f699ac934606e34ad0da07b3624f47
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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