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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489384

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
England crest
EnglandHOME
4:2
Match Finished
HT 2-2
Croatia crest
CroatiaAWAY
Wed, Jun 17 · 20:00 UTCAT&T Stadium, Dallas33°CRefereeClement Turpin, France◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

England (66%)✓ Hit

Home

England

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Croatia

0%

Model call: England

Expected goals: 4.1—2.0(total 6.1)
Upset risk: 4/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 4–2Home win66%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 17

England

4

FT

Croatia

2

Model called (T−24h)

England (66%)

Actually happened

England (66%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored England (66%), and the live read grew to 100% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 4-2, a England win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was England, so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

England

4-2-3-1
  1. J. PickfordG
  2. Nico O’ReillyD
  3. J. StonesD
  4. E. KonsaD
  5. R. JamesD
  6. D. RiceM
  7. E. AndersonM
  8. A. GordonM
  9. J. BellinghamM
  10. N. MaduekeM
  11. H. KaneF

Croatia

3-4-2-1
  1. D. LivakovićG
  2. J. GvardiolD
  3. L. VuškovićD
  4. J. ŠutaloD
  5. I. PerišićM
  6. Petar SučićM
  7. L. ModrićM
  8. J. StanišićM
  9. M. BaturinaF
  10. Mario PašalićF
  11. P. MusaF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-15T20:47:38.111Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

eb68508b46107ae15e50eee8e81910aa561b51455539de4894c36ea474be62f4
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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