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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489385

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Ghana crest
GhanaHOME
1:0
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Panama crest
PanamaAWAY
Wed, Jun 17 · 23:00 UTCBMO Field, Toronto21°CRefereeGlenn Nyberg, Sweden◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Ghana (45%)✓ Hit

In-play peak · live read

Draw 97%75'

Home

Ghana

2%

Draw

Draw

97%

Away

Panama

2%

Model call: Draw

Expected goals: 0.0—0.0(total 0.1)
Upset risk: 6/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%90' — GhanaFT · 1–0Home win45%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 18

Ghana

1

FT

Panama

0

Model called (T−24h)

Ghana (45%)

Actually happened

Ghana (45%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine called a Ghana win (45%), and held that read through to the whistle. Final: 1-0.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Ghana (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

On that 97%: across matches where the Engine has read ~95%+, the favorite goes on to win ≈98% of the time. This was one of the rare late swings that didn't.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Ghana

4-4-1-1
  1. L. ZigiG
  2. Gideon MensahD
  3. J. OpokuD
  4. J. AdjeteyD
  5. M. SenayaD
  6. E. NuamahM
  7. C. YirenkyiM
  8. E. OwusuM
  9. Antoine SemenyoM
  10. Kamaldeen SulemanaF
  11. J. AyewF

Panama

4-4-2
  1. O. MosqueraG
  2. A. AndradeD
  3. J. CórdobaD
  4. Player 57667D
  5. C. BlackmanD
  6. J. RodríguezM
  7. Player 50911M
  8. C. HarveyM
  9. A. MurilloM
  10. C. WatermanF
  11. Y. BárcenasF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-15T20:47:42.980Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

0d79419b6d865e80fc3ec51e3645862a9ad78ce6a5a4afe16d1d515bf09cd88a
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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