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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489386

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Uzbekistan crest
UzbekistanHOME
1:3
Match Finished
HT 0-1
Colombia crest
ColombiaAWAY
Thu, Jun 18 · 02:00 UTCEstadio Azteca, Mexico City17°CRefereeAnthony Taylor, England◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Colombia (40%)✓ Hit

Home

Uzbekistan

0%

Draw

Draw

5%

Away

Colombia

95%

Model call: Colombia

Expected goals: 1.1—2.1(total 3.3)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–3Away win35%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 18

Uzbekistan

1

FT

Colombia

3

Model called (T−24h)

Colombia (40%)

Actually happened

Colombia (40%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored Colombia (40%), and the live read grew to 95% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 1-3, a Colombia win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Colombia (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Uzbekistan

3-4-2-1
  1. U. YusupovG
  2. Player 73418D
  3. A. KhusanovD
  4. R. AshurmatovD
  5. Player 73514M
  6. O. ShukurovM
  7. Player 73522M
  8. Player 416964M
  9. O. UrunovF
  10. A. FayzullaevF
  11. Eldor ShomurodovF

Colombia

4-2-3-1
  1. C. VargasG
  2. J. MojicaD
  3. J. LucumíD
  4. D. SánchezD
  5. D. MunozD
  6. Gustavo PuertaM
  7. J. LermaM
  8. Luis DíazM
  9. J. RodríguezM
  10. J. AriasM
  11. L. SuarezF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-15T20:47:46.618Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

4a23f44f8dbc63b2525f69c46b08f2582f1143735a8e72660136cdd666f60dc4
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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