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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489387

World Cup·Group Stage - 2
Canada crest
CanadaHOME
6:0
Match Finished
HT 3-0
Qatar crest
QatarAWAY
Thu, Jun 18 · 22:00 UTCBC Place, Vancouver22°CRefereeCristian Garay, Chile◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Canada (65%)✓ Hit

Home

Canada

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Qatar

0%

Model call: Canada

Expected goals: 5.0—0.0(total 5.0)
Upset risk: 6/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 6–0Home win65%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 19

Canada

6

FT

Qatar

0

Model called (T−24h)

Canada (65%)

Actually happened

Canada (65%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored Canada (65%), and the live read grew to 100% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 6-0, a Canada win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Canada, so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Canada

4-4-2
  1. M. CrépeauG
  2. R. LaryeaD
  3. D. CorneliusD
  4. Luc De FougerollesD
  5. A. JohnstonD
  6. A. AhmedM
  7. I. KonéM
  8. S. EustáquioM
  9. T. BuchananM
  10. C. LarinF
  11. J. DavidF

Qatar

4-3-3
  1. Player 42207G
  2. Player 175439D
  3. Player 2532D
  4. Player 2530D
  5. Player 377930D
  6. Player 366516M
  7. Player 2535M
  8. Jassem GaberM
  9. Akram AfifF
  10. Player 542541F
  11. Player 42075F

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-16T21:30:09.546Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

d0a1319334a79f4fa3cce887b742956c85ef4eb746df45c131720f21bc20a303
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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